Big Picture Splitter 10/Dez/14

MarketWatch: It’s official: America is now No. 2 – Chinese economy overtakes the U.S.’s to become the largest

Pepe Escobar: Russia, Turkey pivot across Eurasia: (Let’s) get ready for another chapter of Russia’s „pivoting across Eurasia“. Putin hits Delhi next weekend. Expect another geopolitical bombshell.

The Diplomat: Is China’s Money Enough to Unite Central and Eastern Europe? China is entering a period of diplomatic diversification in a bid to escape the restraints of the old architecture of international multilateralism. Up till now, China has largely worked within the existing system, but Beijing clearly feels this framework is designed to benefit the U.S. and its allies. Against the U.S.-EU world of multilateralism, therefore, China has founded a parallel world. Entities like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), and the China-Arab Cooperation Forum, along with BRICS and other groupings, all serve this mission of diversification.

MSM Money: Black Friday revealed how poor Americans really are. After weeks of declining gas prices, many analysts predicted the biggest holiday season ever. Industry groups like the National Retail Federation reasoned that Americans would use their fuel savings on gifts. Despite encouraging forecasts, Black Friday weekend sales were down 11%. Cyber Monday sales rose 8%, falling short of many predictions. So where are the customers? They’re probably broke, according to some analysts and executives.

Spiegel-Interview with Henry Kissinger: ‚Do We Achieve World Order Through Chaos or Insight?‘ – For the greatest part of history until really the very recent time, world order was regional order. This is the first time that different parts of the world can interact with every part of the world. This makes a new order for the globalized world necessary. But there are no universally accepted rules. There is the Chinese view, the Islamic view, the Western view and, to some extent, the Russian view. And they really are not always compatible. (…) Do we achieve a world order through chaos or through insight? One would think that the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the dangers of climate change and terrorism should create enough of a common agenda. So I would hope that we can be wise enough not to have a Thirty Years‘ War.

Zur Bedeutung des sinkenden Ölpreises: 

Pepe Escobar: die Saudis stehen dahinter, weil sie USA und Russland treffen möchten. Aber: keine nachhaltige Policy, wird sich bald (Q1 2015) auch gegen Saudi Arabien richten.

dagegen Alexander Mercouris: „the balance of supply and demand, and the prevailing position of the dollar (…) alone suffice in explaining the recent fall in the oil price without having to introduce complicated and unnecessary theories about conspiracies between the Saudis and the Americans, or of a Saudi plot to undermine the US’s shale industry. (gefunden bei Lars Schall)

Und schließlich unsere eigene Einschätzung: Der gesunkene Ölpreis ist u.a. eine willkommene Gelegenheit, die Beziehung zu den (ausländischen) Investoren des US Fracking-Business neu zu regeln. Die letzten Monate vor dem Zusammenbruch der Subprime-Blase lassen grüßen …

Die Big Picture Splitter sind ein Service des Systemic Foresight Institute für das Resilienz Netzwerk Österreich
Inhalt: Wegweisende Einzelereignisse, welche die in der Big Picture Analyse des SFI dargestellten Szenarien bestätigen oder widerlegen.